Web Excursions 2022-05-13

What Backs a Currency? Terra Luna Drops Nearly 100% - Economics - Intercoin

• Intercoin should be different as it can be “backed by” the community currencies themselves,

  • i.e., the goods and services that you can get in a growing number of communities is what gives value to the Intercoin money system.

  • That’s why the dollar and other national currencies are more stable (assuming they aren’t hyperinflated by their issuers).

• But in the beginning, people who get paid in local currencies will want to know what “backs” them.

  • And Intercoin “backs” them, in that they are exchangeable for it.

  • But what backs Intercoin? Well, what backs gold?

• The fact is that there has always been some demand for gold from “whales” (royalty, etc.)

  • and that made people comfortable to use it as a store of value.

• Same with Bitcoin and so on — the “whales” make the market.

  • Eventually the pension funds may choose to use it as reserves etc.

  • But that is a self-fulfilling prophecy … it is a reserve until it isn’t.

• What actually matters is how many goods and services it can be exchanged for.

  • And Intercoin is almost unique in being designed as a scarce currency that is explicitly designed with maximum utility in mind.

  • So that eventually, anywhere you go, eventually, you can exchange it for goods and services.

  • Because of the network effect and the social software.

  • And that’s what really matters, rather than collective mythos behind a coin, because the latter can just as easily give way to something else.

• At the end of the day, what gives value to the bank’s money, and the dollar,

  • isn’t so much the gold or “the full faith and credit of the United States”

  • but the fact that people will sell you things for that money,

    • and will work hard to repay loans to the bank given in that money.

  • At the end of the day, that is what gives any currency value.

国会山后美国右翼的暗流与逆袭

• 自从媒体和公众频繁关注到美国的“另类右翼”、“极端右翼”，“激进右翼”、“新新右翼”现象，已经过了五六年的时间。

  • 越来越多的分析也不再把共和党看作一个自成体系的党派，而是视为一场团结了各条线右翼的社会运动。

  • 美国不同的右翼保守主义力量，尽管存在内部冲突和斗争，谁都无法单独作为右翼的发言人，他们却都是美国右翼生态的有机组成部分。

• 经历伯克利、夏洛茨维尔、反封锁抗议、QAnon、国会山暴力等标志性事件和动员的洗礼，在 2022 年中回望已有的组织积淀，

  • 这波沿袭自 60 年代新保守主义与里根新右翼资源的新兴右翼势力，已经从亚文化小树苗长成了屹立在文化战争潮头的苍天大树。

  • 更关键的是，这颗巨大的树冠下开始容纳越来越多的观念旁枝和寄生物，使之在巨大的进步主义冲击下不仅得以幸存自保，还能不断吸纳新的信众。

  • 正是这种看似破碎的网络，赋予了这场运动组织上的韧性。

• 对国会山暴动的审理已经陆陆续续进行了一年多。

  • 真正被判决有刑期的人数只占到 80 多，而其中绝大多数都没有真正在监狱服刑。

  • 极右翼的游击战术使得幕后的人员网络可以藏匿在团体外壳内，随时金蝉脱壳。

• 新纳粹组织 Identity Evropa（后称 American Identity Movement）于 2020 年末解散后，核心成员转而加入 Patriot Front、National Justice Party (NJP) 、America First 等替代性组织

• 对极右翼组织再生更有指标意义的，是年轻右翼主播 Nick Fuentes 主导的 America First 运动及其松散的白人至上网络 Groyper Army。

  • 2020 年，Fuentes 组织了第一届 America First Political Action Conference (AFPAC)，

    • 创造主流保守派年会 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) 外的另类选择。

  • AFPAC 是 Fuentes 与川普保守派交恶的直接产物，前者和 Groyper Army 也常常在公开场合挑衅他们称之为“伪右派”的川普主义组织，尤其 Turning Point USA 不够“美国优先”和反犹反黑。

  • 激进右翼出现这类激进左翼圈内更常见的分化，反向证明了右翼网络的成熟，每一条线都可以独立运作，内部分歧不再是秘而不宣的丑闻。

• 美国优先运动的激进立场也让 Charlie Kirk 领衔的 Turning Point USA（TPUSA）看起来温和理性，从而得以有效地强化自己在各大校园的统治力。

  • 目前，在保守基金会和石化行业支持下，迅速扩张的 TPUSA 在全美 1400 多所大学和高中都建立了正式分部，拥有 25 万名学生会员

  • TPUSA 成为目前文化战争中的关键组织，为不满教科书和学区负责人学校的家长们提供可操作的行动工具包。

• 看似低调边缘，实则掌握着巨大的资金和制度支持，能分到每个参与者更多的机遇。

• 在另类右翼刚刚崭露头角的阶段，右翼发言人们往往聚集在一些专门的右翼社群网络，

  • 比如社交网站 Gab 和 Parler、视频网站 Rumble、Telegram 和 Discord 群组、私人架设网站、广播电台、暗网等等。

  • 在这个阶段，激进右翼往往需要通过线上游戏，死亡金属等亚文化文化渠道来招募到感兴趣的年轻受众，再引导其吞下“红药丸”进入右翼的媒体宇宙。

• 然而，近两年互联网平台环境的改变，为右翼创造了占领舆论的新契机。

  • 首先，音频播客平台的崛起带火了一大批右翼节目。

    • 右翼保守派播客已经形成了一个生态完整的小星系，从公然叫板左翼的 America First With Sebastian Gorka，到访谈类节目 Jack Murphy Live，再到科技与哲学导向的 Other Life，都有着各自稳定的拥趸。

  • 另外值得一提的是以 Substack 为代表的订阅式平台的影响。

    • 2020 年末开始，大量保守派、新右翼和反疫苗人士瞅准风口加入 Substack，平台相对宽松的内容审查也使得相关频道得以快速积累人气。

  • 联想到 50 年代以来右翼早就轻车熟路的直邮策略（Direct Mail Strategy）。

    • 1970 年代中期美国竞选法修订，大额捐款限制增加，被誉为政治直邮创始人的 Richard Viguerie 利用自己的咨询公司创建了巨大的潜在保守派散客数据库，通过定期大规模发送恐慌性信件，有效获得捐款辅助了里根竞选。

• 日益宽广的群众基础。

  • 用“宽广”来形容，是不仅仅指代数量上的优势，更是群众背景的越发多元化，管理层与工人阶级，移民与少数族裔，世俗与宗教社群，工厂与科技公司中都有保守主义的拥趸

  • 近世代工人阶级右翼的涌现，那些在本土维度上支持自身工人族群权利，却在其他跨国和文化维度上趋向保守的工人阶级群体。

• 宗教和家庭保守主义为美国的右翼运动保存着最后的精神火种。

  • 正如历史社会学者 Melinda Cooper 所勾勒的，特朗普主义代表的与其说是被损害的工人阶级，不如说是美国二战之后家庭保守主义的再现。

  • 家庭保守主义所要捍卫的是异性恋家族维系的小农场或小企业精神，其对立面是有上市大企业撑腰的进步派多元觉醒文化。

  • 在 Yarvin 借用开源软件术语的政治理论中，多元主义是一种伪装成去中心意见市场（巴扎）的中心化暴政（大教堂），也只能通过根本性的政权改变加以推翻。

  • 小微企业和巨兽型资本不啻为两种资本主义模式的内战，而前者选择了以激进反建制的面目出现。

• 对硅谷等科技大公司的关注可能扭曲了公众对美国资本主义发展的认知

  • 即使在当下，美国的建筑行业都依然由家族企业、裙带关系和无数外包工所主导，这些被压榨却看上去独立盈亏的外包工人，可能才是激进右翼所维护的工人原型。

• 这种经济层面维护和复归传统白人核心家庭的动力，也部分呼应了如火如荼的文化战争中跨性别议题的核心位置。

  • 跨性别友好的教材被视作批判种族理论的毒瘤，维护酷儿孩子的家长和老师被反复骚扰威胁。

• 与家庭保守主义复兴一体两面的是宗教右翼话语的进击。

  • 右翼宗教仪式也具备了跨境传输的能力，在年初加拿大卡车司机的反疫苗抗议中，同样出现了宗教色彩浓厚的抗议剧码。

• 右翼所能团结的对象甚至已经超越了保守派的范畴，而扩大到在任何维度上持有非自由主义意识形态的个体。

  • 个体的政治、经济和文化倾向不一致本不是一个新的现象。

  • 虽说传统上，宗教信仰和右翼政治形态走得更近，世俗化更可能是左翼和自由派的标签，

  • 但基于美国 2016 年的数据却发现，政治和宗教立场一致的情况只发生在不到三分之一的人口中。

• 随着局部战争与新冷战的蔓延，政治的光谱已经被进一步打乱。

  • 自成一体的左右意识形态外，本土和国际，保护和自由的维度变得更为关键，甚至超越了左右分歧的重要性，所有的立场都要附上社群和地理的边界才能挑明争端。

  • 这种意识形态光谱的翻转和重构，也催生了更多以往难以想象的跨光谱联姻。

• 在四月末的一篇博客里，Yarvin 提出了称之为“深层右翼”（Deep Right）的概念试图取代“新右翼”（New Right），因为它“听上去不那么高调，略微积极又带点危险，与深层政府（Deep State）互为镜像，听上去有点意思又不弯弯绕绕。

  • ”从“另类”到现在的“深层”，概念的刷新也是在同样的内核之上创造更多模糊地带的手段。

Behind the Expert Testimony in the "Fitbit Murder" Trial

• This week, a Connecticut jury convicted Richard Dabate of murder in the killing of his wife, Connie Dabate, after a five-week-long trial

  • that hinged — in part — on data from her Fitbit.

• Richard said a man dressed in camouflage broke into their home in 2015 and shot Connie.

  • But Connie wore a Fitbit, and data from the device showed movement for around an hour after Richard said the break-in happened.

• To make the case that the Fitbit data helped show Richard killed Connie, prosecutors called on Keith Diaz,

  • an exercise physiologist and professor at Columbia University Medical Center.

  • Diaz has done studies validating the accuracy of Fitbits and testified about their precision.

• “The scientific questions we’re answering are different from the criminal questions,” he says.

  • “What I’ve strived to do in these cases is translate that.”

• [Q: What’s the difference between what a scientist might want to know about a Fitbit and what a jury might need to know?]

  • In science, we care about things — like if I took 100 steps but the device says I only took 92 steps.

    • [But in a criminal case,] if the device detects movement, that’s good enough for the case.

    • With this Connecticut case, there was a lot of back and forth in the cross-examination about the error rate.

    • But the error rate was on the number of steps someone took — not the error rate of if they were moving.

  • in science, especially in a lot of the studies I work with, you’re working with large sample sizes that could have thousands of people.

    • Any noise gets dissipated with so many people.

    • But, with a criminal case, you have just one person — so noise matters and can bring in some doubt about what really happened.

• [Q: How do you adjust the science to meet the needs of a criminal case?]

  • You can leverage the things that science might see as errors.

  • So, if you’re brushing your teeth and wearing a device on your wrist, there are cases where the device misregistered that as steps.

    • Obviously, in science, that’s an error.

  • It’s actually a strength to use these devices in this context because of their high sensitivity.

    • When there is no motion detected, when it is not recording any steps, we should be pretty darn confident that a person is not moving.

• [Q: What’s [it] like as a scientist [to participate in a criminal trial]?]

  • some of the prosecutors have made efforts to bias my interpretation.

  • It may be unintentional, but they are going to have the perspective that

    • they believe this person is guilty and that

    • they need someone to come in and support the case.

  • But I don’t want to just go in and be ammunition for the prosecutor;

    • I want to give a balanced interpretation of what the science means and how it can be applied in the situation.

See also Fitbit Testimony Heard In Richard Dabate Murder Trial

• The Fitbit 1 was the exact device found on Connie Debate’s body, on December 23, 2015, the day she was killed.

  • Richard Dabate told police a masked intruder, dressed in camouflage, entered their Ellington home,

  • and shot Connie in front of him around 9:05 a.m. that morning.

• Prosecutors dispute that

  • and displayed evidence Monday showing the last registered movement Connie’s Fitbit showed was at 10:05 a.m. that morning,

  • an hour after the time the police warrant says Dabate told police the murder happened.

• The defense argued the time could have been off if the device the Fitbit was synced with did not have the accurate time.

  • Diaz says that’s unlikely.