Web Excursions 2021-09-10

Tech Epochs and the App Store Trap by stratechery.com

• Trump’s gambit accomplished what the Chinese government never could: aligning private companies’ incentives with the state’s goal of economic self-sufficiency.

  • It is one thing to align private incentives with state incentives;

  • it is an open question if doing so by removing the drive for dominance and outsized profits ends up being a case of one step forwards, and two steps back.

• In 2014 I described the The Three Epochs of Consumer Tech to that point

  • The PC epoch had Windows as its operating system, productivity software as its killer app, and email was the dominant communications medium.

  • The Internet epoch had the browser as its operating system, search as its killer app, and social networking, particularly Facebook, was the dominant communications medium.

  • The mobile epoch had iOS and Android as its operating systems, the sharing economy as its killer app, and messaging was the dominant communications medium.

• In 2020, I argued we had reached The End of the Beginning:

  • about the overall shift in computing

  • from mainframes to PCs to mobile,

  • which mirrored the shift from one room computing to desktop computing to cloud computing

  • This is a progression where the potential for crypto-based computing and its inherent decentralization fits right in

• It was the Internet that gave mobile the fuel to get off of the ground

• It’s much harder, particularly in 2021, to appreciate the extent to which Apple increased the total addressable market for everyone

• What is new to the App Store are the shift of more and more productivity applications to subscription billing.

• What is not clear is if, in a vacuum, this is particularly good for their business

  • The App Store, though, is not a vacuum:

  • it is an economy where Apple sets the rules

• by 2015 it seemed clear that the era of mobile productivity apps was going to be a disappointing one

  • Six years on and not much has changed

• Apple, meanwhile, is seeing more challenges to its centralized control of the app economy than ever before,

  • from antitrust lawsuits to potential legislation

  • to run-ins with regulators around the world.

• What is important is that these changes happen sooner rather than later, for the sake of tech’s fourth epoch.

• If consumer tech’s second epoch — the Internet — was built on and enabled by the first — the PC — then it follows that the fourth epoch is built on and enabled the third.

• Whether that innovation can be achieved as control is re-centralized is one of the most important questions of the next decade.

• the question, as always, is about

  • the companies that aren’t formed,

  • the creators that aren’t empowered,

  • the metaverses that die on the vine because developers couldn’t make money, or

  • the platform creator couldn’t justify the risk.

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Stop Doomscrolling: 6 Ideas for a Quick Break

1. Listen to a short podcast

• ListenNotes is a great podcast search engine, and you can filter for podcast length on its free version.

2. Get in some foreign language study

• Duolingo is a great, free option for learning vocab. You could also find a short easy language podcast.

3. Try walking meditation

• Calm and Headspace, two popular meditation apps, both have a bunch of walking meditation sessions.

4. Create and listen to 15-minute playlists

• Do a search on "energize," "relax," or "destress" in whatever music app you use.

5. Enjoy a long read of personal interest

• While the read-it-later app is also useful to clip and manage all the work- and industry-related articles you want to read, that's not what you want during your break.

• Instead, find some sources or authors that regularly publish long reads with a strictly personal appeal.

  • Maria Popova's Brain Pickings,

  • Something more classic like The New Yorker.

  • Writer aggregation sites like Medium and Substack, where you'll find content on every topic imaginable.

  • Blinkist

6. If you just can't resist the social media…

• You don't want to fall into Twitter toxicity or weirdly inauthentic lifestyle Instagram feeds.

• Instead, pre-select specific hashtags or accounts that bring you joy or relax you. The Dodo (@dodo) and the Sheldrick Wildlife Trust (@SheldrickTrust) have happy animal videos. Highly recommend.

Bonus option #7: It's a phone. Call someone close and have a chat.

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Daring Fireball: Why iPhone Names Have Numbers and Most Other Apple Product Names Don’t

• Apple wants people who are buying new iPhones that were first introduced 2–3 years ago to feel like they’re getting a new iPhone.

• They should, because they are — they’re great devices at lower prices, and will be supported for years to come.

• But if the iPhone XR were named “iPhone (2018)”, they’d feel old.